- Scott Iseman
Election Night Shocker in New York State
Democrats scored two primary election night shockers with wins in NY-19 and NY-23 districts, running on the issue of abortion.
Rasmussen Reports has been tracking a rising Biden approval, so in retrospect, last night's results shouldn't have been a big surprise. As Presidential approval rises, political environment can favor the governing party. But Democrats simply turned out the numbers they needed to win, and Republicans didn't.
Clearly the political environment has shifted post SCOTUS Dobbs ruling, but analysts still see a narrow Republican House win in a now seen neutral environment, with a potential loss of 1-2 Senate seats. (Caution here to not overinterpret the outome special elections, which may not fully reflect the broader electorate in November.)
Everyone got NY-19 wrong.
What few pre election polls there were got both NY-19 and NY-23 wrong by not catching turnout trends. Forecasting models only had a handful of internal polls to go on, plus known fundamentals, but polling is not effective unless pollster can tap into those turnout trends.
As the 2022 general election kicks into high gear, Democrats will be running on abortion, an issue which is driving turnout enthusiasm.
Republicans will be running on gas prices, inflation, and crime.
Here's the post NY-19 outlook, at least for this week.