- Scott Iseman
A Recession, or Something Worse?
The long accepted technical defintion of a 'recession' is negative growth for two consecutive quarters. This benchmark was met in Q2 reporting in July, but half the mainstream media suddenly decided to change the definition of a recession to suit a political agenda.
With Q3 reporting coming up in October just before Midterms, not unreasonable to expect another economic contraction, especially with the Federal Reserve hiking rates, and possibly more to come.
Yesterday, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey plummeted to -31.3, showing orders and shipments tanking, and inventories moving higher. The second worst drop on record.
Over the weekend it was reported that Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan chief executive said on a call that he sees:
Only a 10% chance of an economic slowdown that doesn’t lead to a recession, while ominously warning there are 20-30% odds of “something worse”.
That leaves the nation heading into a continued period of economic uncertainty, but hoping for the best.