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  • Scott Iseman

2024 Election Trends (March Edition)

Near seven months until the 2024 general election, and some trends are becoming clearer, but as a general rule, I don't get into election predictions.

Three things can impact an election, up until the final weeks and days before election day: 1. Economy. 2. Unforeseen events. 3. Turnout.

The polling industry tells us the following (at this time):

  1. Even with all his legal troubles, Donald Trump is currently favored to win the Presidency, for the second time.

  2. Republicans are favored to win the Senate with 51-52 seats.

  3. The race for the House of Representatives is a tossup.

Every election I like to reference the best analyst from the last election to shed light on current polling trends. In 2022, Race to the White House was the most accurate analyst.

The above graphic from Race to the White House shows how state polling is forecasting Trump to win 312 electoral votes. National polling shows Trump winning by 1.5 to 2 points over President Joe Biden, but state polling is what really matters, in an election where a handful of swing states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia) will determine who wins.

Another factor not working in President Biden's favor is an abysmal approval of 38.4%, which is low enough that his hold on the Presidency is in jeopardy.

Over the next several months, polling will shift, and while we can't count out a Biden comeback win, at this time, it would take a systemic polling error, or higher turnout trends for Biden to prevail.

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