2022 Midterm Forecasting

In November 2021, with COVID restrictions and education two hot issues, a red wave crested over Virginia, with Republicans winning local races into New Jersey and parts of New York, rattling the Democratic establishment.

With high inflation, and declining gas prices, Is there still a red wave looming for 2022 Midterms? August polling says no, but primary numbers show Republicans turning out to vote stronger than Democrats.

One downside of internet era elections are spectators staring at aggregate polling sites, prediction markets, looking at ratings changes on congressional seats, and reading into special elections; with everyone getting caught up in speculation.

After Labor Day, polling is expected to improve and electoral trends should become more clear, but in the end, it comes down to turnout through election day on November 8.

Consensus thinking today is Republicans would win the House, and Democrats are slight favorites to hold the Senate.

Update: Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics published this piece, What Washington State's Primaries Predict for the Midterms, and concludes with:

It seems to suggest that the environment for Republicans is better than it was in 2020 and is certainly consistent with them winning control of the House and being positioned to take the Senate.