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  • Scott Iseman

Democrats scored two primary election night shockers with wins in NY-19 and NY-23 districts, running on the issue of abortion.


Rasmussen Reports has been tracking a rising Biden approval, so in retrospect, last night's results shouldn't have been a big surprise. As Presidential approval rises, political environment can favor the governing party. But Democrats simply turned out the numbers they needed to win, and Republicans didn't.


Clearly the political environment has shifted post SCOTUS Dobbs ruling, but analysts still see a narrow Republican House win in a now seen neutral environment, with a potential loss of 1-2 Senate seats. (Caution here to not overinterpret the outome special elections, which may not fully reflect the broader electorate in November.)


Everyone got NY-19 wrong.


What few pre election polls there were got both NY-19 and NY-23 wrong by not catching turnout trends. Forecasting models only had a handful of internal polls to go on, plus known fundamentals, but polling is not effective unless pollster can tap into those turnout trends.


As the 2022 general election kicks into high gear, Democrats will be running on abortion, an issue which is driving turnout enthusiasm.


Republicans will be running on gas prices, inflation, and crime.


Here's the post NY-19 outlook, at least for this week.






  • Scott Iseman

Updated: Aug 24, 2022

There's a big debate about quality of election polls. Both sides have good points, and a track record of success and failure. But in too many election races these days, where races are competitive, polling quality can be poor and partisan.


In November 2021, a handful of pollsters saw a red wave coming, and a potential win for Glenn Youngkin in his bid to become Governor of Virginia. Network and partisan polls missed by a mile. That November 2021 red wave crested not only in Virginia, but in both New Jersey and New York rattling the Democratic establishment.


I don't mind election forecasters getting an election wrong, as long as it's within reason. What's wrong with election industry polling is threefold:


1. Too many pollsters don't poll competently, missing key demographic segments, then the political establishment floats these published polls as supposedly credible evidence of success for their political side; hijacking the narrative on false data.


2. There is a partisan polling and corporate agenda problem, and can often see this in network and cable news polls that overstate support for one side or another. Usually in Democrat races, like Fox News is notorious at doing.




3. Aggregated polling (like Real Clear Politics, 538) references frequent Democrat bias pollsters to project a generic ballot average that isn't likely going to become reality.


Based on track record of election wins, or near wins, I'm more confident in polling from Trafalgar, Rasmussen Reports, People's Pundit, Emerson, and a few others, who either nail elections near right on, or forecast it close enough. These pollsters take the time, money, and care to tap into the electorate, and report their polling that usually stands up as fairly credible once the election is over.


After Labor Day, more honest polling will better narrow 2022 Midterms down, as pollsters shift from registered voters to likely voters in their samples. In the polling industry, everyone knows likely voters are more likely to partipate in elections, and this shift in likely voter polling for the general election season could add 1-3+ points to a pollster spread.


On Presidential approval, President Biden has enjoyed some rough polling trends for the last year, with approval ratings often in the 30% range.


Rasmussen Reports saw Biden's approval improving before anyone in the last 2 weeks, which is typical for Rasmussen, and they've been spotting trends first for years. As of Friday, Rasmussen has Biden's approval at 44%. This is important because a President's approval rating historically correlates to how well the President and his party does in Midterm or in Presidential elections.


With 2-1/2 months until Midterms, today's polling averages tell us Republicans are likely going to take control of the House, but Democrats are favored to win the Senate.


  • Scott Iseman

The long accepted technical defintion of a 'recession' is negative growth for two consecutive quarters. This benchmark was met in Q2 reporting in July, but half the mainstream media suddenly decided to change the definition of a recession to suit a political agenda.


With Q3 reporting coming up in October just before Midterms, not unreasonable to expect another economic contraction, especially with the Federal Reserve hiking rates, and possibly more to come.


Yesterday, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey plummeted to -31.3, showing orders and shipments tanking, and inventories moving higher. The second worst drop on record.


Over the weekend it was reported that Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan chief executive said on a call that he sees:


Only a 10% chance of an economic slowdown that doesn’t lead to a recession, while ominously warning there are 20-30% odds of “something worse”.


That leaves the nation heading into a continued period of economic uncertainty, but hoping for the best.

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