Incoming Powerful Christmas Weekend Storm

On Queen Elizabeth ll

Yesterday the world learned that Queen Elizabeth ll passed away at the age of 96.

Born Elizabeth Alexandra Mary in 1926, Elizabeth was not only the most famous woman in the world, but greatly beloved, in many nations.

Here in America, we have a complicated relationship with the British Monarchy, seeing as our nation declared our independence from British tyranny in 1776, but as is custom of America, when our allies are in danger, we have historically fought world wars overseas to save Western Civilization.

Lost in the massive outpouring of tribute, is Elizabeth's brave character as a young Princess during the darkest days of World War ll for England, when the Royal Family refused to flee England as Nazi Germany bombed London during the Blitz.

In June 1945, just after World War ll ended in the European Theatre, Dwight D. Eisenhower gave a speech to the UK Parliament, where he said:

So even as I proclaim my undying Americanism, I am bold enough and exceedingly proud to claim the basis of kinship to you of London.

And this is how some Americans are feeling today, as the nation mourns the loss of the worldly Queen Elizabeth ll.

Magazine sales are likely going to soar in the next few weeks as Queen Elizabeth commemorative issues hit the newsstands.

Photo Credit: People Magazine

Election Night Shocker in New York State

Democrats scored two primary election night shockers with wins in NY-19 and NY-23 districts, running on the issue of abortion.

Rasmussen Reports has been tracking a rising Biden approval, so in retrospect, last night's results shouldn't have been a big surprise. As Presidential approval rises, political environment can favor the governing party. But Democrats simply turned out the numbers they needed to win, and Republicans didn't.

Clearly the political environment has shifted post SCOTUS Dobbs ruling, but analysts still see a narrow Republican House win in a now seen neutral environment, with a potential loss of 1-2 Senate seats. (Caution here to not overinterpret the outome special elections, which may not fully reflect the broader electorate in November.)

Everyone got NY-19 wrong.

What few pre election polls there were got both NY-19 and NY-23 wrong by not catching turnout trends. Forecasting models only had a handful of internal polls to go on, plus known fundamentals, but polling is not effective unless pollster can tap into those turnout trends.

As the 2022 general election kicks into high gear, Democrats will be running on abortion, an issue which is driving turnout enthusiasm.

Republicans will be running on gas prices, inflation, and crime.

Here's the post NY-19 outlook, at least for this week.