The long accepted technical defintion of a 'recession' is negative growth for two consecutive quarters. This benchmark was met in Q2 reporting in July, but half the mainstream media suddenly decided to change the definition of a recession to suit a political agenda.
With Q3 reporting coming up in October just before Midterms, not unreasonable to expect another economic contraction, especially with the Federal Reserve hiking rates, and possibly more to come.
Yesterday, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey plummeted to -31.3, showing orders and shipments tanking, and inventories moving higher. The second worst drop on record.
Over the weekend it was reported that Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan chief executive said on a call that he sees:
Only a 10% chance of an economic slowdown that doesn’t lead to a recession, while ominously warning there are 20-30% odds of “something worse”.
That leaves the nation heading into a continued period of economic uncertainty, but hoping for the best.
Updated: Aug 16
In November 2021, with COVID restrictions and education two hot issues, a red wave crested over Virginia, with Republicans winning local races into New Jersey and parts of New York, rattling the Democratic establishment.
With high inflation, and declining gas prices, Is there still a red wave looming for 2022 Midterms? August polling says no, but primary numbers show Republicans turning out to vote stronger than Democrats.
One downside of internet era elections are spectators staring at aggregate polling sites, prediction markets, looking at ratings changes on congressional seats, and reading into special elections; with everyone getting caught up in speculation.
After Labor Day, polling is expected to improve and electoral trends should become more clear, but in the end, it comes down to turnout through election day on November 8.
Consensus thinking today is Republicans would win the House, and Democrats are slight favorites to hold the Senate.
Update: Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics published this piece, What Washington State's Primaries Predict for the Midterms, and concludes with:
It seems to suggest that the environment for Republicans is better than it was in 2020 and is certainly consistent with them winning control of the House and being positioned to take the Senate.