On Queen Elizabeth ll

Yesterday the world learned that Queen Elizabeth ll passed away at the age of 96.

Born Elizabeth Alexandra Mary in 1926, Elizabeth was not only the most famous woman in the world, but greatly beloved, in many nations.

Here in America, we have a complicated relationship with the British Monarchy, seeing as our nation declared our independence from British tyranny in 1776, but as is custom of America, when our allies are in danger, we have historically fought world wars overseas to save Western Civilization.

Lost in the massive outpouring of tribute, is Elizabeth's brave character as a young Princess during the darkest days of World War ll for England, when the Royal Family refused to flee England as Nazi Germany bombed London during the Blitz.

In June 1945, just after World War ll ended in the European Theatre, Dwight D. Eisenhower gave a speech to the UK Parliament, where he said:

So even as I proclaim my undying Americanism, I am bold enough and exceedingly proud to claim the basis of kinship to you of London.

And this is how some Americans are feeling today, as the nation mourns the loss of the worldly Queen Elizabeth ll.

Magazine sales are likely going to soar in the next few weeks as Queen Elizabeth commemorative issues hit the newsstands.

Photo Credit: People Magazine

Election Night Shocker in New York State

Democrats scored two primary election night shockers with wins in NY-19 and NY-23 districts, running on the issue of abortion.

Rasmussen Reports has been tracking a rising Biden approval, so in retrospect, last night's results shouldn't have been a big surprise. As Presidential approval rises, political environment can favor the governing party. But Democrats simply turned out the numbers they needed to win, and Republicans didn't.

Clearly the political environment has shifted post SCOTUS Dobbs ruling, but analysts still see a narrow Republican House win in a now seen neutral environment, with a potential loss of 1-2 Senate seats. (Caution here to not overinterpret the outome special elections, which may not fully reflect the broader electorate in November.)

Everyone got NY-19 wrong.

What few pre election polls there were got both NY-19 and NY-23 wrong by not catching turnout trends. Forecasting models only had a handful of internal polls to go on, plus known fundamentals, but polling is not effective unless pollster can tap into those turnout trends.

As the 2022 general election kicks into high gear, Democrats will be running on abortion, an issue which is driving turnout enthusiasm.

Republicans will be running on gas prices, inflation, and crime.

Here's the post NY-19 outlook, at least for this week.

On Election Season Polling

There's a big debate about quality of election polls. Both sides have good points, and a track record of success and failure. But in too many election races these days, where races are competitive, polling quality can be poor and partisan.

In November 2021, a handful of pollsters saw a red wave coming, and a potential win for Glenn Youngkin in his bid to become Governor of Virginia. Network and partisan polls missed by a mile. That November 2021 red wave crested not only in Virginia, but in both New Jersey and New York rattling the Democratic establishment.

I don't mind election forecasters getting an election wrong, as long as it's within reason. What's wrong with election industry polling is threefold:

1. Too many pollsters don't poll competently, missing key demographic segments, then the political establishment floats these published polls as supposedly credible evidence of success for their political side; hijacking the narrative on false data.

2. There is a partisan polling and corporate agenda problem, and can often see this in network and cable news polls that overstate support for one side or another. Usually in Democrat races, like Fox News is notorious at doing.

3. Aggregated polling (like Real Clear Politics, 538) references frequent Democrat bias pollsters to project a generic ballot average that isn't likely going to become reality.

Based on track record of election wins, or near wins, I'm more confident in polling from Trafalgar, Rasmussen Reports, People's Pundit, Emerson, and a few others, who either nail elections near right on, or forecast it close enough. These pollsters take the time, money, and care to tap into the electorate, and report their polling that usually stands up as fairly credible once the election is over.

After Labor Day, more honest polling will better narrow 2022 Midterms down, as pollsters shift from registered voters to likely voters in their samples. In the polling industry, everyone knows likely voters are more likely to partipate in elections, and this shift in likely voter polling for the general election season could add 1-3+ points to a pollster spread.

On Presidential approval, President Biden has enjoyed some rough polling trends for the last year, with approval ratings often in the 30% range.

Rasmussen Reports saw Biden's approval improving before anyone in the last 2 weeks, which is typical for Rasmussen, and they've been spotting trends first for years. As of Friday, Rasmussen has Biden's approval at 44%. This is important because a President's approval rating historically correlates to how well the President and his party does in Midterm or in Presidential elections.

With 2-1/2 months until Midterms, today's polling averages tell us Republicans are likely going to take control of the House, but Democrats are favored to win the Senate.